QUIZ 2010: where is the last concert

[casterbridgecohen]

PLEASE NOTE SINCE JARKKOS LATEST HINT ABOVE REGARDING BEACH PARTIES I HAVE REVISED THE ODDS AND WE HAVE A NEW FAVOURITE - FIRST HK THEN MONTREAL AND NOW HONOLULU. DURBAN HAS SHORTENED, PAPEETE, VANCOUVER,ATHENS AND HYDRA INTRODUCED. RIO HAS BEEN REINTRODUCED THO TOO FAR.

Betfairs latest odds based on Jarkkos tips are as follows:

5/2 Honolulu (Has Beach)
7/2 Cape Town (Has Beach nearby)
4/1 Durban (Has beach)
6/1 A City with a beach not on this list
7/1 Papeete (Beach nearby)
9/1 Toronto
10/1 Johannesburg; Vancouver (North America's finest city has plenty of City and Stanley Park Beaches)
12/1 Los Angeles (Has beach)
16/1 Rio ; Tvlcottih(Does anyone know if Tvlcottih has a beach?)
20/1 Las Vegas (Money can buy a beach in Las Vegas)
25/1 Halifax; St Johns; Phnom Penh
50/1 Dublin (Dun Leoghie Beach?)
66/1 Denver (Mile high Beach?)
100/1 Paris (Beaches on the Seine but not in winter)
500/1 Athens (Has Beach)
666/1 Hydra (Has Beach)
1000/1 Yeovil (Weymouth Beach?)

Please Note

These odds have been drastically revised since my earlier post in light of Jarkkos latest hint about beaches - both posts need to be read in conjunction with each other.

1 'A City not on this list' is still good value if our favourite Finnish accountant has spent too long in the Sauna and got his Mathmatical calculations wrong!
2 Phnom Penh offers good value if negotiations for the last concert are not successful and PP is the last concert this year by default.
3 South Africa was always planned as an option after Asia and is approximately a third of the circumferance of the earth away from Cambodia. Durban and Cape Town have beaches. Johannesburg has crime.
4 It was always planned to revisit the eastern Canadian provinces and play larger venues than those used when the tour kicked off in the Spring of 2008 - this region is a third of the circumferance away flying the Polar route. Unfortunately they have no beaches unless you count the St Lawrence!

My revised pick? Honolulu - could also be the H in TvlcottiH - the very last concert of the tour is either Here or Honolulu

[pironi]

I think I have solved it. Last tourist in Havanna, many years ago, now last concert in Havanna. Begins with H. Correct distance from Cambodia. Many nice sand beaches. Warm climate at the end of the year. All that makes perfect sense.
IT IS HABANA CUBA!
Pietro.

[yoeri]

Jarkko: 26/7:

The last city does not, according to current plans, begin with "H"

so you can delete honolulu, halifax and (pity) Hydra, though in Greek it is Ydra

[somewhat_nifty]

I agree with casterbridgecohen - 'h' has got to stand for 'here', then it's nicely interchangeable for wherever the actual last date ends up being (and we see how frequently plans change...).

[MaryB]

H could also be Home. Since Jarkko already said it would not be in Canada - LC's other home is in Los Angeles. H might also stand for the name of the venue if H doesn't stand for a city

[mutti]

I am glad Casterbridgecohen agrees with me that Vancouver has the nicest beaches in Canada and is such a beautiful city it is...he and I share a fondness for walks on Spanish Banks...hopefully see you Michael at the Film Festival in October if you are still planning to make it there then...we can gather Imaginary Friend and IMM and have a LC meetup somewhere...
as far as the last concert of 2010 I doubt it would be a beach party in the winter in Canada and as Mary B says we were told Canada was out for this year....hmmm!
Would you mind explaining the bets and odds system you are using? I am like a kindergartener in that sort of thing...
thanks!
Mutti (Leslie)

[Ronaldson]

Jarkko did say that the city's name does not begin with "H"; perhaps the "H" refers to "Hawaii" as long as the final concert is not actually in Honolulu.

One observation is that the "h" in Tvlcottih is not capitalized--this might be a subtle clue if Jarkko is being strict about his grammar (if the "h" actually refers to a city or venue name (i.e. a proper noun), the "H" would also be capitalized like the "T"). As others have said, maybe the "ih" refers to "is home" (presumably LA and not Montreal; also agrees with the beach hint perhaps).

[scocoh]

Rio de Janeiro

Let me be the first to congratulate you, mw. .... .....


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[mwaldman]

Rio de Janeiro

Let me be the first to congratulate you, mw. .... .....


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Thanks, scocoh. Hope I'm right. Now if I could just afford to go to Rio ....

Mike

[mwaldman]

sturgess66

Posts: 1620
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:50 am
Location: Tvlcottih, Pennsylvania

Love your optimism, Linda!

Mike

[scocoh]

Rio de Janeiro

Let me be the first to congratulate you, mw. .... .....


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Thanks, scocoh. Hope I'm right. Now if I could just afford to go to Rio ....

Mike

You and me both, Mike. It's around $1500 for the flight from here. I'm continually amazed (and envious) seeing how many people are able to travel so much to see him.

[MaryB]

(But, I still maintain that Tvlcottih is a suburb of Philadelphia.)

I notice you have moved Linda. To be closer to the venue?

[MaryB]

I'm continually amazed (and envious) seeing how many people are able to travel so much to see him.

I, for one, am very fortunate to have a son who works for the airlines and as a result we get to fly for free or for an extremely low fare. (It is not always the best situation as we fly on a standby basis and are always biting our nails to see if we can get on a flight because of overbookings.) If not for that fact,(and cutting corners wherever possible) we could never afford it. Nevertheless, we are forever thankful that we have the benefit of this type of situation..Maybe this clears up a little of the mystery.

Kindest regards,
Mary

[jarkko]

Not Rio! Also, I haven't said that my dream to participate in a beach party in pleasant and warm surroundings has something to do with the very last concert (and it probably will remain a dream - in winter time those warm beaches are pretty far from where I live).

[casterbridgecohen]

No Honolulu - maybe a beach? - a third of the circumferance away - not in Asia? - look to South Africa or LA everyone.

Mutti - how are odds calculated?

In theory a bookmaker(oddsmaker) will always attempt to compile odds that add up to 110% - if a chance is 1/1 you have a 50% chance of winning. If it is 2/1 you have a 33% chance of winning of winning, if it is 10/1 you have a 9% chance of winning.

Why 110%? - well the extra 10% is the bookmakers percentage of winnings or 'cut' or 'vigorish'. Or in other words whichever horse wins a race the bookmaker will adjust the odds so he gives approx 90% of the money he/she is holding.

So if a bookmaker is holding $1000 of bets on a race he will want to be giving $900 back and keep $100 as his profit. If a 100/1 outsider wins that no one has backed it is a good result for him and he scoops the pot. But if the heavily backed favourite wins and the bookmaker has not been able to lay off the money he could face a heavy loss.

Most bookmakers are excellent mathmaticians and statisticians who can quickly work out odds and percentages and understand the laws of probability. If the bookmaker is holding say $5000 on a race and someone comes and wants to put $3000 on the 2/1 favourite (which would cost him $6000 if the horse won - more than he is holding on the race) the bookmaker will probably say 'No - I will lay(offer) you $1500 at 2/1 (exposing the bookie to a $3000 loss) and $1500 at 6/4 (exposing him to a $2250 loss)'

He would then lengthen the odds for all the other horses to more than his fellow bookie competitors are offering e.g he would move his 4/1 horse to 5/1 and his 6/1 horse to 7 or 8/1 to attract more money to balance his books and be able to pay off in the light that the 2/1 horse wins.

This is why bookmakers are called oddsmakers. In truth they are rarely able to perfectly balance their books to 110% but you need not fear that you will not be paid - licensed bookakers in the UK, India, South Africa, Vegas etc are only allwed to trade with sufficent reserves to pay all liabilities and more. Backstreet neighborhood bookies are another story. A bad day for the bookies is when a number of shortpriced favourites win - a good day is when the longpriced outsiders win. If a bookmaker goes home with 4% of all the money he has held through a day he is feeling good.

My odd have been a lighthearted look at the various possibilities and not compiled to return a 110%.

The fact that Jarkko has said £5 on the likely city would enable him to afford a ticket suggests it could be one of the longer priced selections that I have nominated!

Clear as mud now?